The competition is firmly between Spain, Croatia and Italy as Ireland are well and truly out. If Croatia vs Spain does not end in a draw, it will be very simple to separate Group C’s winners and runners-up. One thing is sure, if Italy win today against Ireland, they will qualify as runners-up in Group C if there is a winner between Spain and Croatia.
• Spain will crash out if they lose to Croatia and Italy beat Ireland
• Croatia will crash out if they lose to Spain and Italy beat Ireland
• Italy will crash out as the bottom team in Group C if they lose to Ireland
Things will get complicated if Italy beat the Republic of Ireland and Spain draw with Croatia. In that case, Spain, Croatia and Italy will all have 5 points. This is when UEFA’s tie-breaking rules will need to be applied.
As of now, Spain have 4 points like Croatia. Italy have 2 points meaning that only victory would give them a chance of surviving at Euro 2012. Meanwhile, Spain and Croatia will advance whatever the result between them once Italy fail to beat Ireland.
Group C ahead of its final round of matches at Euro 2012
| EURO: GROUP C 2012 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Spain | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 |
| 2 |  |
Croatia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 2 | |
| 4 | |
Ireland Republic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
The 5 points prospect: Croatia vs Spain ends in a draw and Italy beat Ireland
To have the full list of UEFA's tie-breaking rules, see Group B permutations explained: Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark & Germany insecure.
Criteria a) explains that the head-to-head factor will be at work. In our scenario, we will have the following:
Italy will get 2 points from drawing against Spain and Croatia. Spain will get 2 points from drawing against Italy and Croatia. The latter will get 2 points from drawing against Italy and Spain. Subsequently, criteria a) will not be able to separate the three teams in question.
We go to criteria b) where goal difference resulting from the games played between Italy, Spain and Croatia will count. Yet again, we will have (+0) for each of the teams. Criteria c) could finally help make the cut. Ahead of the final games in Group C, Italy have 2 goals, Spain and Croatia are on 1 goal each.
Scenario 1: Croatia vs Spain ends goalless.jpg)
If Croatia vs Spain ends goalless, Italy will win Group C with a higher number of goals scored in the matches played between the teams in question. In such a case, Spain and Croatia will remain inseparable with 1 goal each.
Criteria d) explains that "if, after having applied criteria a) to c), two teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the two teams in question to determine the final rankings of the two teams."
However, criteria a) will put Spain and Croatia on 1 point each; criteria b) will put Spain and Croatia on a zero goal difference each; criteria c) will put Spain and Croatia on zero goal each. According to criteria d), "if this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to i) apply in the order given."
This starts with approving the team with a superior goal difference in all group matches. In that case, Spain will win with (+4) as Croatia have (+2).
• In short, if Italy beat Ireland and Spain draw blank with Croatia, the latter will exit UEFA Euro 2012. Italy will qualify as Group C winners with titleholders Spain finishing as runners-up.
Scenario 2: Croatia vs Spain ends 1-1
If Croatia vs Spain ends 1-1, criteria e) will have to be used as Italy, Spain and Croatia will each be on 2 points, a zero goal difference and 2 goals. Criteria e) will then apply which means that Italy’s supposed victory over Ireland will be key.
As of now, Spain lead with a (+4) goal difference, Croatia are behind with (+2) and Italy are third in the four-man group with (+0). Croatia will be out if Italy manage nothing less than a 3-0 margin victory. Remarkably, there is also the possibility of Italy equalling Spain or Croatia’s goal difference.
In that case, criteria f) will apply, meaning that the two teams with the higher number of goals scored in all group matches will qualify. Looking into this scenario, we have the following permutations:
Italy equal Spain’s (+4) goal difference by recording a 4-0 margin win over Ireland
This scenario will automatically put Croatia out. The last thing at stake between Italy and Spain will be the top spot in Group C. With a 1-1 result against Croatia, Spain will finish Group C with 6 goals scored.
Having currently scored 2 goals only, Italy will subsequently win Group C only if they score 5 goals or more in their 4-0 margin win against Ireland. A 4-0 result for the Azzurri will put both Spain and Italy on 6 goals.
However, the reigning European champions will go through as group winners based on criteria g); Spain are second in the current UEFA coefficient ranking while Italy are fourth.
Italy equal Croatia’s (+2) goal difference by recording a 2-0 margin win over Ireland
Spain will automatically win Group C with this scenario. Italy and Croatia will be left to battle it out for the second spot. A 1-1 draw between Croatia and Spain will see the former finish Group C with 5 goals scored.
Criteria f) means that Italy will crash out with a 2-0 victory as they will finish the group phase with 4 goals scored. If Italy beat Ireland 3-1, they will equal Croatia’s 5-goal tally.
Criteria g) will then apply. As Italy are 17 places above the Croatians, the latter will lose out. If Italy beat Ireland by a 2-0 margin higher than 3-1, Croatia will be out as well.
• In short, if Croatia vs Spain ends 1-1, Italy will be forced to win by more than 2 goals and avoid the 2-0 result to qualify.
Scenario 3: Croatia vs Spain ends 2-2 or in a higher score draw
Italy will automatically crash out with such a result. Such a result between Croatia and Spain will nullify criteria a) and b) but criteria c) will apply. A 2-2 draw will see Spain and Croatia hit 3 goals. Italy, having scored a total of only 2 goals against Spain and Croatia, will eventually be eliminated.
