It can’t get any better than a rivalry match to decide which team will lift the trophy once it’s all said and done. Real Madrid might look like the stronger team on paper – and rightfully so with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema on the squad – but Atletico can’t be taken for granted and they already evidenced that in the semifinals where they eliminated Bayern Munich with an Antoine Griezmann goal during the away leg at Allianz Arena.
Real Madrid might have won the last time both teams met in a European final a couple years ago, but they need to beware if they want to conquer La Undécima next Saturday. Here are some facts that evidence why Atletico could be a threat bigger than expected for Los Merengues:
1. Atletico’s success against Real Madrid
One might believe Real Madrid has a big supremacy over their city rivals, and even though Los Blancos still have the edge over Los Colchoneros in the all-time record with 107 wins in 212 games, recent results indicate the trend has morphed a bit over the past three years.
During that time span both teams have meet 15 times, and Atletico Madrid has won six times as opposed to Real’s three wins and six draws. Atletico’s manager Diego Pablo Simeone, in fact, has six wins, seven draws and six losses against his rivals since he took over at the Vicente Calderón outfit midway into the 2011-12 campaign.
2. Speaking about Simeone…
El Cholo is known for an attacking style that contradicts most modern paradigms. While managers like Luis Enrique and Josep Guardiola emphasize their tactic in controlling possession, Simeone is known for preparing his teams to be as effective as possible. This effectiveness was in full display against Bayern Munich as Atletico eliminated the German giants despite having only 31% of possession in the first leg and 32% on the second one.
To make things even more complicated for his opponents, Simeone is known for closing the spaces on the defensive end to counter-attack quickly with players like Koke, Griezmann, Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco and Saúl. Real Madrid will have to be extremely focused in defense to avoid surprises like the one Bayern encountered during the second half at Allianz Arena.
It's going to be a tough duel between Real Madrid's Zinedine Zidane and Atleti's Simeone
3. Atletico has enough weapons to complicate things for Real Madrid
Koke is easily one of the most underrated midfielders in Europe. Griezmann has pace to burn, and he’s also enjoying the best scoring season of his career with 33 goals in 58 matches across all competitions. The defensive pair of Diego Godín and Jose María Giménez is one of the most consistent in any of Europe’s top five leagues.
It’s hard to find a goalkeeper that has improved as much as Jan Oblak over the past 12 months. And there’s also Fernando Torres who’s enjoying one of his best years in recent memory thanks to 12 goals in 42 matches in total. Atletico might not be a star-studded team like Real Madrid, but they have enough talent to pose a threat against Zinedine Zidane’s side.
4. Fernando Torres
The aforementioned Torres could end up being one of the most important players in this game. The Spaniard is not the deadly striker he once was, but the fact that he has an eye for goal in important matches can’t be hidden.
El Niño found the back of the net in the two EURO Cup finals he played (2008 and 2012), and has also done it in finals at the U19 and U16 levels with La Furia Roja. Torres scored twice against Los Merengues last season, but hasn’t done it this year. Will he come through for Atletico when the team needs him the most?
Who will steal the show?
5. Red cards could decide the game
Since the 2011-12 season there have been only five games where at least one player was sent off in the Madrid Derby, but the team with the man disadvantage has always lost the match in question. The only exception came in the Copa Del Rey 2012-13 where both teams had a player sent off and Atletico won the game in Extra Time. Small sample size certainly applies here, but Real Madrid needs to avoid receiving red cards at all costs if they want to contain Atletico as effectively as possible. They have to avoid being provoked by their rivals, something Los Colchoneros – and Simeone in particular – are known to do.
6. Atletico will be much more focused defensively
Even though Real Madrid is unbeaten when it comes to UCL finals, it needs to be said that they were only seconds away from losing in 2014 against Atletico hadn’t it been for Sergio Ramos’ goal in stoppage time. This version of Simeone’s team is stronger in defense in comparison to the 2014 squad, and the numbers back it up: they conceded 18 Liga goals this year compared to 26 two seasons ago. Needless to say, Simeone will alert his players to be even more focused in the final minutes to avoid an incident like Lisbon’s one.
7. Last but not least, Real Madrid can’t repeat what they did against Manchester City
Los Merengues were flat-out boring against in their semifinal tie against Manchester City and while they managed to advance, their overall performance left a lot to be desired. Several experts believe Madrid only advanced due to Man City’s lackluster play, and if they had play like this against a stronger team then the outcome could’ve been totally different. Zidane’s boys lacked pace in the final meters, creativity in midfield, and they couldn’t create many chances against a defense that didn’t have tis best player (Vincent Kompany) for most of the second leg.
Man City didn't have a single shot on target while Real Madrid completed less than 500 passes. Poor. Image credit: UEFA.com
They can’t afford to play like this in the biggest game of the year, as they could easily be exposed in a number of ways: Koke’s creativity, Ferreira’s dribbling ability, Griezmann’s pace, Godin’s aerial presence or Torres’ scoring capacity are just some of the ways Atletico can attack Real Madrid if given the chance. Los Merengues need to play one of their best games of the year if they want to lift the trophy once it’s all said and done.
It remains to be seen if any of these predictions, facts or stats will make an impact once the ball starts rolling, but one thing is for certain: only one team will be celebrating after Mark Clattenburg blows the final whistle, and it wouldn’t be strange to see Los Colchoneros winning their first UEFA Champions League trophy in history. They certainly are talented enough to pull the upset.
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