As things stand, it looks set to be a close race for the top two spots in Group H. Currently, Croatia sit on top of the pack with 15 points, but the Vatreni could face a points deduction for some of their fans' racist and disruptive behavior during one of their past matches. Meanwhile, Italy are tied with them in terms of points total, but the Azzurri's inferior goal differential - an advantage of five versus Croatia's 13 - puts them in second place. And finally, Norway, thanks to their win over Bulgaria have inched closer to the top two, with their 13 points seeing them in third place.
Italy
Sometimes in football, all a team needs is a "Pele". Or, in the case of Italy, a "Graziano Pellè". The towering Southampton striker seems to have a knack of scoring against Malta, as it was his goal last October that finally broke down a staunchly defensive side who were keen on hunkering down and holding out for a draw. Not surprisingly, Malta attempted the same tactic against the Azzurri in Thursday's match, and it nearly worked as Antonio Conte's men were again frustrated playing against a team who put every single man behind the ball.
However, Pellè again came to the rescue, with his second half goal enough to give them a crucial win, and with Croatia being held to a surprising 0-0 draw against Azerbaijan, it now puts Italy in a good position to overtake their opponents as Group H's top-ranked side. With Croatia playing Norway on the same day, it will be crucial for the hosts to earn all three points in Palermo against Bulgaria, whom they have met 18 times.
Interestingly, Italy boast a mixed record against their upcoming opponents. Despite having won half - or nine - of their past meetings, they have also drawn them seven times and lost on the other two occasions. In their most recent meeting in Sofia, they fought back to secure a 2-2 draw, which, coincidentally, was the second straight time the two sides had recorded the exact same score-line (the first was during the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, when Cesare Prandelli was in charge).
The win against Malta now means that Italy are now unbeaten in their last 37 competitive home fixtures, with an overall record of 31 wins and just six draws. The last team to depart with a win against the Azzurri was Denmark, who were able to secure a 3-2 victory nearly 16 years ago - on September 8, 1999. In addition, Palermo has brought good fortune to the hosts, who have won seven out of their last eight competitive matches, with Croatia being the last team to leave Sicily with a 2-1 win in 1994.
Bulgaria
Meanwhile, Bulgaria, who once boasted legendary players like Hristo Stoichkov in its squad, have really no hope for securing a spot at EURO 2016 and as such will be playing for pride. Ivaylo Petev's men will be coming into this game having lost against Norway, and Petev would not have been amused with his team's performance against the Azzurri in Sofia last fall. Initially, it looked set to be smooth sailing for the Eastern European nation, who had taken a seemingly comfortable lead, but sloppy defensive efforts and overall complacency allowed Italy to claw their way back to secure a draw.
Whilst both teams ended up earning a point each, it would have felt like one point won for Italy, but two crucial ones dropped for Bulgaria. And given their opponents' formidable home record, things do not look good for the visitors, especially given their inconsistent form on the road. Curiously enough, in their last sextet of matches, Bulgaria have fluctuated between losses and wins - in essence, with no gray area or a draw. Their most recent away match finished as a win, whilst the one before that concluded as a defeat, so if this same interesting pattern is to hold true, then Petev's men are in for a tough evening in Palermo.
Will Italy earn all three points against Bulgaria this time? Or will the home side have to settle for a draw?
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