It is incredible to know that no team in Group B is safe – not even Germany on 6 points. Likewise, the Netherlands are not dead yet despite losing twice on the trot.
Denmark vs Germany and Portugal vs Netherlands kick off at the same time tonight and sets of fans in both stadiums will be anxious about the other match’s result.
The permutations in Group B are complicated. We explain everything. Get a clear understanding of what your favourite team must do or avoid as Last 8 tickets are at stake at Euro 2012.
What Germany, Portugal, Denmark and the Netherlands must do to seal their place in the Last 8
• Germany must at least draw to be sure of a quarter-final spot regardless of the outcome in the Portugal vs Netherlands match.
• Portugal must defeat the Netherlands to advance but if Denmark beat Germany by a result other than 2-1 or 1-0, Portugal will be out. A draw will take the Portuguese through as long as Germany avoid defeat against Denmark. Portugal can still lose by a 1-goal margin and advance as long as Germany defeat Denmark.
• Denmark must beat Germany. Denmark can draw and advance if the Dutch beat the Portuguese.
• The Netherlands must win by two clear goals and hope that Denmark lose.
How Group B looks like before its final round of matches at UEFA Euro 2012
| EURO: GROUP B 2012 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Germany | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | |
Portugal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3 |
| 3 |  |
Denmark | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3 |
| 4 | |
Netherlands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
What UEFA's tie-breaking rules explain
Paragraph 08.07 of the UEFA European Football Championship 2010-12 regulations could be needed to separate the teams.
a) Higher number of points obtained in the matches played between the teams in question;
b) Superior goal difference resulting from the matches played between the teams in question;
c) Higher number of goals scored in the matches played between the teams in question;
d) If, after having applied criteria a) to c), two teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the two teams in question to determine the final rankings of the two teams. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to i) apply in the order given;
e) Superior goal difference in all group matches;
f) Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
g) Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see annex I, paragraph 1.2.2);
h) Fair play conduct of the teams (final tournament);
i) Drawing of lots
Scenario 1: Denmark beat Germany and Portugal beat the Netherlands
This scenario will put Germany, Portugal and Denmark on 6 points each. Criteria a) will not separate the three teams in questions since Germany will have 3 points from defeating Portugal and losing to Denmark, Portugal will have 3 points from losing to Germany and defeating Denmark and the Danes will have 3 points from losing to Portugal and defeating Germany.
In that case, we go to criteria b) where the goal difference resulting from the matches played between the teams in question is what will count. On this note, Portugal currently have (+0) as they lost 1-0 to Germany before beating Denmark by a 1-0 goal margin.
If Denmark beat Germany by a two-goal margin, Denmark will qualify as group winners with a positive goal difference and Portugal will be second with their zero goal difference. Meanwhile, Germany will be disqualified with a negative goal difference. However, Germany and Denmark will also have (+0) if Denmark win by a 1-0 goal margin on Sunday night.
In such a case, criteria c) will be used. That’s when the number of goals scored in the matches played between Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands will count. Portugal currently have 3 goals, Denmark have 2 goals and Germany have 1. The match between the Danes and the Germans will be decisive.
If Denmark win 1-0, they will be on 3 goals like Portugal and Germany will remain with 1 goal. Portugal and Denmark will go through with criteria a) making the Portuguese winners of Group B.
If Denmark win 2-1, they will be on 4 goals, Portugal will be second with 3 goals and Germany second with 2 goals. In that case, Denmark will go through as Group B winners and Portugal will qualify as runners-up.
If Denmark win 3-2, they will be on 5 goals, Germany will have 3 goals like Portugal. Criteria a) will send Germany through ahead of Portugal.
In other words, Germany can still lose and qualify even if Portugal beat the Netherlands. This will be possible as long as Germany score no less than 2 goals in a 1-goal margin defeat to Denmark.
Scenario 2: Germany beat Denmark and the Netherlands beat Portugal
That would put Germany on 9 points whereas Denmark, Portugal and the Netherlands will all be on 3 points. The procedures as mentioned above will be used.
According to criteria a), Portugal will have 3 points from beating the Danes and losing to the Dutch, Denmark will have 3 points from beating the Dutch and losing to the Portuguese and the Netherlands will have 3 points from losing to the Danes and beating the Portuguese.
Criteria b) will then have to be applied. As of now, Portugal have (+1) following their 3-2 victory over Denmark. The latter have (+0) following the 1-0 victory over the Netherlands which preceded their 3-2 loss to Portugal. The Netherlands currently have (-1). If the Dutch beat Portugal by a 1-goal margin, both will have (+0) like Denmark. In that case, who will join Germany into the quarter-finals?
Criteria c) will be used, forcing the Netherlands to win by two clear goals or exit Euro 2012. This means that Portugal can afford to lose by a 1-goal margin against the Netherlands once Germany beat Denmark.
