The gap between the top two German sides is down to five points. The title race is not over yet.
Former Bayern captain and midfield general Mark Van Bommel made a very interesting comment following the Champions League final of 2010. Bayern, despite having all the stats except the most important one in their favour, had lost the Champions League final, 2-0. Van Bommel said that it is not the best team but the most effective team which wins.

Best and effective are supposed to be synonymous words. However, a simple example from this Bundesliga weekend will clearly show what this means. Dortmund was the best team in terms if the way they played. They created innumerous chances but they converted just once. Meanwhile, Leverkusen beat St.Pauli after going a goal down. Lars Bender scored the winner.

This season, Leverkusen has been the most efficient side and has the best goal goals scored to chances created ratio. The ratio is even better than that of Hanover.

Leverkusen’s bridesmaid status is justified. They after all, handed Bayern the title on the last day of the season in 2000 when they were supposed to lift it. For once, though, it is not Leverkusen’s turn to tremble. A lead of double figures has been cut down by Bayer to just five points with five matches to go. With Dortmund dropping points, Leverkusen seriously has a shot at winning their first Bundesliga crown. The word ‘first’ sounds surprising, doesn’t it?

The fact of the matter is that this Sunday is going to be the toughest day for Leverkusen as far as the rest of the season is concerned. Bayer travels to the Allianz Arena to take on Bayern. All the media hype about Jupp Heynckes and the rumours about transfers are increasing each week in Bavaria.

Heynckes will be under the spotlight. Bayern, under Andries Jonker, will perhaps be a different side. Heynckes will have to win the game to ensure that Robin Dutt will be managing in the Champions League next season. By doing so, he might be denying himself the chance to manage in the Champions League next season.

A few factors are in Leverkusen’s favour. Arjen Robben and Holger Badstuber are suspended, which immediately gives Bayer the edge. Leverkusen is the form team in the Bundesliga. They have recorded five out wins in their last five games. On top of that, St.Pauli was the only team to even score against them in the past five matches.

Dortmund, meanwhile, has won two, drawn two and lost one. That is a loss of seven points. Dortmund is inconsistent at the moment.

Dortmund also has a slightly tougher final run-in than Leverkusen. They play Freiburg next. Freiburg caused them no end of trouble in their previous match. Dortmund was a goal down even at the hour mark but then managed to turn it around. Leverkusen doesn’t have to play Freiburg till the last match of the season.

Dortmund has to take on Nuremberg. Nuremberg has been one of the best sides in the second half of the season and rarely gives up. Dortmund also has Werder, currently in the mix in the lower half of the table, in their upcoming fixture list.

Leverkusen has to play Hamburg which is never easy but has already played their bogey-side, Nuremberg. Mönchengladbach, prepared to give anything for survival will play Dortmund as well. Frankfurt, also scrapping for survival, is Dortmund’s last assignment of the season. Leverkusen has a derby to take care of against Köln before the season ends. They also have to play inconsistent Hoffenheim.

If Leverkusen drops points to Bayern and Dortmund doesn’t, the title is without a doubt heading to the Ruhr region. However, while Bayern should make life difficult for Leverkusen, Dortmund, as previously stated, has a very tough assignment in Freiburg. Robin Dutt will be hoping to leave Freiburg for the Champions of the 2010-11 season.

As far as the mental strength goes, Leverkusen has it in them to win the title this season unlike previous seasons where they finished in second. They learnt from last season’s mistakes. Dortmund, meanwhile, is a younger side than Leverkusen. This is their first title challenge since they last won it in 2002. Leverkusen perhaps has the edge there.

Another factor coming into play is the conversion of chances. Dortmund has failed to convert most of their chances and has dropped points thanks to the wasteful nature of Barrios and co. Leverkusen rarely misses chances when they get them. Also, Leverkusen has no pressure on them. They are well ahead of third placed Hanover. The gap is eight points. Dortmund has plenty of pressure on their shoulders. They were supposed to be champions since the winter break. Losing the title now would break the hearts of the entire Dortmund family.

One factor is in favour of Dortmund. Their massive goal difference means that even if Leverkusen catches up, Dortmund will win if the two sides finish on equal points. According to Stefan Kiessling, Leverkusen will only be talking about the title if they beat Bayern.

Leverkusen hasn’t beaten Bayern for a while. Most of their meetings tend to end up in draws. Leverkusen, however, isn’t the mentally fragile side of previous seasons and will be looking to tear apart Bayern’s makeshift defence. If Leverkusen wins the title, a few eyebrows will certainly be raised. However, a spectacular collapse by Dortmund can only allow Leverkusen to do so.

Leverkusen must beat Bayern this weekend. If they do, not too many people will be surprised if Simon Rolfes, rather than Sebastian Kehl, holds the Bundesliga shield in May.