Saturday November 14th will be the date for the first leg of four different European World Cup play-offs matches. In Lisbon, Portugal will welcome Bosnia Herzegovina in a crunching encounter.

Simao Sabrosa enjoys his goal against Malta with the rest of his mate as Portugal edge closer to qualifyingHow Portugal qualified into the play-offs

It took a bit of miracle for Portugal to make it to this stage and ultimately stand the chance of reaching the finals of the World Cup in South Africa next summer.

The battle for the second spot went all the way down to the final moments in Group A.

On match-day 9, Sweden’s loss to Denmark suddenly put the 2004 European championship finalists in a better position to qualify at the expense of the Swedes. It meant that two victories out of two games would lift Portugal onto second in the six-team table and therefore put them in the play-offs.

Indeed, the Portuguese took all of their chances with a 3-0 win against Hungary and a 4-0 triumph over Malta on home soil.

 

The 2006 World Cup semi-finalists finished the campaign with 19 points – just two behind the group’s leaders Denmark.

How Bosnia Herzegovina qualified into the play-offsBosnia go wild after recording their biggest win ever in their history of football as they thrashed Estonia 7-0

Bosnia Herzegovina qualified from Group 5 with 19 points, just like Portugal, but they were eleven points behind the 2008 European champions Spain who kept a perfect record throughout the entire World Cup qualification campaign.

Despite ending the qualifiers with a 5-2 defeat on home soil against La Furia Roja, Bosnia Herzegovina qualified for the play-offs with four points above Turkey.

Actually, Bosnia had drawn 1-1 against the Turks and won 2-0 away to Estonia before losing 5-2 against Spain in a game of little importance.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s loss to Belgium which preceded their win against Armenia meant that the second spot in Group 5 was safely offered to Bosnia Herzegovina.

Portugal v Bosnia Herzegovina match analysis

Many people might put their money on Portugal to win on Saturday but Bosnia should not be written off just yet.

The Golden Lilies got recognized by Fifa and UEFA in 1996 and 1998 only, and after just a little more than 10 years of international football as an independent nation, Bosnia Herzegovina could qualify for the finals of a major tournament for the first time in their history.

Bosnia Herzegovina proved time and times again throughout the World Cup qualifiers that they could pose a threat to adversaries with brilliant performances against Estonia (where they won 7-0), Armenia, Belgium, and even Spain (despite losing both legs).

Wolfsburg’s Edin Dzeko was their man of the moment with 9 goals in the campaign and Portugal’s boss Carlos Queiros is aware of the striker’s potential.

Bosnia Herzegovina's Edin Dzeko captured during a friendly match away from Bosnia."Edin Dzeko will definitely be their stand-out player. It's no coincidence that he has been named among the 30 candidates to win France Football's Ballon d'Or,” Carlos Queiros affirmed shortly after France Football announced their 30-man list for the Ballon d’Or.

“He [Edin Dzeko] is a highly impressive player who has been doing really well recently,” Queiros remarked before concluding his reflection on the striker:

“But obviously he is not the only one.”

Indeed, Edin Dzeko is not the only one that should be on the radar of the Portuguese defense.

Misimovic and Zlatan Muslimovic are also two players that could terrorize Portugal. Both scored 9 goals together in all in the World Cup qualifiers.

Whereas this trio is expected to feature on November 14th for Bosnia Herzegovina, Portugal will miss the services of the injured Cristiano Ronaldo.

The national team captain was included in the roaster by the “stubborn” Carlos Queiros who defied Real Madrid’s strong statements that the player is not fit to play.

However, after a few series of disputes between the Portuguese Football Federation and Real Madrid, it was decided that Cristiano Ronaldo will not play neither on Saturday nor on Wednesday.

Medical tests carried out by Portugal's medics well and truly confirmed that the team's captain, Cristiano Ronaldo, was not fit enough to feature for the squad this weekend.

However, Simao Sabrosa (who missed a crucial chance for Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid last Saturday), Luis Nani, and Liedson are expected to power Portugal with important goals on home soil in order to ease the pressure in the next leg away to Bosnia four days later.

Statistical analysis between Portugal and Bosnia Herzegovina

With all the talent that Portugal possess in attack, it might come as a surprise to know that they’ve scored fewer goals than Bosnia throughout the European World Cup qualifiers.

In ten matches, the Portuguese found the net at seven occasions and scored 17 goals in all, giving them an average of 2.43 goals per match when they score and an average of 1.7 goals in all.

As for Bosnia Herzegovina, they’ve netted as much as 25 times in 10 games and they only time they failed to score in the World Cup qualifier was against Spain in the opening game of their campaign.

But if Bosnia Herzegovina can be proud of such advantageous statistics in attack, Portugal can also boast of a better defensive record.

The Portuguese managed more than 5 clean sheets in the World Cup qualifiers compared to Bosnia who have managed only 3 and conceded as much as 13 goals in all.

Portugal's players celebrate together after thrashing Malta 4-0 on their way to the play-offsMy arithmetical predictions ahead of Portugal v Bosnia

The game might not be a one-sided affair even if one of the two teams manages to dominate over the other. There is a sense that there will always be some threat at the other end of the field, considering the weaknesses and the strengths of both Portugal and Bosnia.

Should neither of the teams flop during the match on Saturday, I predict an open game with a lot of chances for both sides, although most of them might fall to the hosts, Portugal.

Bosnia Herzegovina will not succeed in keeping a clean sheet but Portugal will only be in comfort zone if they make the most of their chances upfront instead of firing wide or not accurately.

The match could be a close contest especially if the battle turns into a psychological battle. What Bosnia Herzegovina could abuse of is the state of Cristiano Ronaldo’s health and absence from the Portuguese squad.

However, if Carlos Queiros can cancel out Bosnia Herzegovina’s key attributes, then Portugal could show their real side by almost ending Bosnia’s lifetime dream of reaching the finals of a World Cup.