With just one match remaining, many teams will be seeking to either snatch late qualification, consolidate their spot as top seed, or to even make sure they put themselves in a good position to qualify for the play-offs. In the case of Group H, many had expected EURO 2012 finalists Italy and Croatia to be the two squads heading to France. However, football is indeed an unpredictable thing, and Norway, whom some felt could seal a place via the play-offs, not only are in contention to directly qualify but also even take top spot in their group.
Italy
In their most recent match, Italy recorded a resounding 3-1 victory over Azerbaijan, with Eder opening proceedings before Stephan El Shaarawy grabbed his first international goal in nearly three years and Manchester United's Matteo Darmian scored his first goal for the Azzurri. The win was the first time the team have scored three goals since Antonio Conte took over last summer, and they will hoping to build on an impressive home record to close out their qualifying campaign on the right note with a win over Norway.
The last time time Italy lost at home was to another Scandinavian side - Denmark - who edged them out 3-2 in September 1999. Their record currently stands as 32 wins and six draws; however as of late, the goals seem to have dried up as in their last seven games (five wins and two draws) they have been unable to either score or beat their opponents by more than one goal. All in all, they do enjoy a good record against Norweigian teams in UEFA competition; out of the 27 thus far, they have won 19, drawn five, and lost just three. At home this record stands at 11 wins, zero draws, and two losses.
Given that they have not lost a home match in this century and sealed qualification for their sixth straight EURO tournament, Italy will be loathe to throw that away by not taking this match seriously. And with the game being played in the nation's capital - where they have never lost in 15 games, with 10 wins and five draws - the last thing the home crowd would want to see is the Azzurri to suffer defeat in their final qualifying match. Additionally, they will lose their position at top seed, albeit a draw would be enough to hold off the visitors.
Norway
Meanwhile, Per-Mathias Høgmo's men are in a good position to qualify for their second EURO tournament in the nation's history. Their first and only appearance to date, during the 2000 edition ended during the group stags in which they won one, lost one, and drew one whilst scoring one goal. In this current qualifying campaign, they have been largely solid, with just two losses - a 5-1 humiliation against Croatia and a 2-0 reversal versus Italy - and have built up a three match unbeaten run, including getting some revenge on the Vatreni by defeating them 2-0 on matchday eight.
However, the visitors do not have a good track record against Italian teams. Out of their past 27 meetings, they have avoided defeat on just eight occasions, with three wins and five draws. They will, however, be coming into this game having won their past three away matches and will be hoping that their positive momentum will carry them to what would be an impressive win in Rome on Tuesday evening.
The permutations in Group H are indeed interesting. Should Italy win, they will clinch top spot. A draw would still work for the Azzurri, but will be of concern to Norway if Croatia defeat Malta. Due to the Norwegians having the worse head-to-head record after losing 5-1, they could find themselves in third by the time the dust settles on matchday 10.
Here's how Italy, Norway, and Croatia all look ahead of the final matches on Tuesday:
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The Azzurri might have already sealed their ticket to EURO 2016, but they surely won't want to drop any points nor spoil their unbeaten record in their group. Meanwhile, Norway will be coming into this game knowing that a win would vault them to the top of the pack and give them a better seeding option at next year's tournament.
Will Italy complete their EURO 2016 qualifying campaign unbeaten? Or will Norway bounce back after their disappointing loss to Portugal?
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