In less than 12 hours, the 2015 FIFA Women's World Cup will come to an end at Vancouver's BC Place. As luck would have it, this final, the seventh since the tournament was established in 1991, will be a re-match of the 2011 edition as the USWNT prepares to take on Japan. This is also the third final meeting between these two sides over the past four years, who are ranked second and fourth in the world respectively.
Four years ago, Japan made history as the first ever Asian side to win a World Cup final. Not many had given the Nadeshiko much thought as save for a quarter-final appearance in 1995, they had failed to get out of the group stages in their last three tournaments. They had managed to fare better in the Asian Cup in recent times, earning two third place finishes in 2008 and 2010, but no one could have anticipated the success they experienced in Germany.
And now they have finally arrived. Thanks to joining an elite club of just three other teams - the USA, Germany, and Norway - as winners of the much-desired prize, Norio Sasaki's women were included when discussing who were serious contenders for the title. Should they again beat the USWNT today, Japan will join an even more select group that includes just two teams - Germany and the USA - who have both won the competition twice. Only Germany, who had to settle for fourth as a brave English side narrowly edged them out in yesterday's consolation match have won back-to-back titles.
Much of the talk has been on the USWNT and their quest for revenge. Many have already decided that Jill Ellis's side are the clear favorites to take home the trophy. However, as Japan proved four years prior, underestimate them at your own will. Yet, the Stars and Stripes' performance so far is not something to be overlooked. So far, they have only conceded one goal and star keeper Hope Solo has kept clean sheets against Colombia, China, and most significant, Germany.
So, how do Japan's chances look? Let's have a look at some key points.
1. The highest scoring team does not always win tournaments
In the group stages, Japan scored four goals, the same as the USWNT. Given that hosts Canada only scored twice, the Nadeshiko's goal haul looks pretty decent enough.
That is, until one takes a closer look at what groups Japan and the USA were placed in. Japan arguably had one of the "easier" quartets at this tournament, with a trio of debutants: Switzerland, Cameroon, and Ecuador for company. However, both the Swiss and the Cameroonians managed to score more, with the latter managing nine whilst the former accumulated 11. Still, it was all enough for them to record a perfect three wins out of three and head into the knockout rounds top of their group.
An interesting caveat: Germany might have blitzed everyone in the early stages, but when the going got tough, Silvia Neid's ladies appeared to have hit full throttle far too soon and began to stumble when it really counted. Meanwhile, Japan have not exactly blown away the competition, whether in the group stages or in the knock-out rounds.
They were given a late scare by the Netherlands after a horrible mistake by Golden Glove nominee Ayumi Kaihori. Against Australia, they labored against the aggressive Matildas before finally getting a reprieve thanks to a very late goal from substitute Mana Iwabuchi. Finally, in taking on England - a team no one had expected to be at that stage - they were very disappointing and required a stroke of bad luck for the Three Lionesses to edge into the final.
Yet, despite their overall muted performances, Japan have made it here without over-exerting themselves. What is interesting, though, is that they are the only team to have won every single of their six games so far, and all without scoring more than one or two goals. Indeed, the Nadeshiko are a pragmatic side that do not need to beat anyone 5-0 and are very content with getting one early and defending deep, or trying to make their opponents chase the ball as they patiently await a chance to strike.
Also, let's not forget that the USA also have nine goals, having scored five times in the knockout rounds like their upcoming opponents. Both teams have also created 59 chances on goal, meaning that they are even, as far as goals and opportunities go. It only takes a solitary chance to decide a game, and all Japan's wins have come by a margin of exactly one goal. So, should they strike first, the USA could be in trouble.
2. Keeping the ball
Given their smaller stature, Japan have to rely on other methods when taking on bigger and stronger teams. They were bullied by the Three Lionesses but overall, in a testament to their top technical skills, have completed a whopping 80 per cent of their passes, the most of any of the 24 teams participating in this tournament.
Their fleet-footed nature, epitomized by star midfielder Aya Miyama has caused trouble for the USWNT in the past and she will be again providing the creativity for her team as they look to wear the USA out by keeping the ball and rapidly switching it from one side of the field to the other.
The majority of us played games of keep-away as children, where one runs and runs and runs in the hope of finally nicking the ball off an opponent. But what happens during this contest? One becomes physically and mentally exhausted. Japan will try to do the same against the USA and due to their aerial deficiencies, will try to keep the ball on the ground where they can do their best work and try to catch their opponents flat-footed on a quick breakaway.
3. Spreading the wealth
Out of the eight goals actually scored by Japan, only Miyama has scored more than once, with two goals to her name so far. This means that six other players - Saori Ariyoshi, Yuika Sugasawa, Aya Sameshima, Mizuho Sakaguchi, Yūki Ōgimi, and the aforementioned Iwabuchi have contributed to the team's effort.
The USA also has seen their goals spread throughout the the team. Carli Lloyd has scored three, whilst Megan Rapinoe has two. Alex Morgan, Abby Wambach, Christen Press, and Kelley O'Hara all have netted once.
Japan's coach has not been afraid to rotate his squad throughout the tournament and still has managed to continue his perfect 100 per cent win streak. As such, this has eased the burden off some of the team's stars but has shown that everyone is more than able and willing to contribute to adding goals - something that their opponents ought to keep in mind.
4. Wounds that have not healed + growing overconfidence = Advantage Japan?
There is one facet that stats and numbers will not be able to quantify, and that is the psychological factor in this game. Although the USA got some modicum of revenge by beating them at the Olympics in 2012, most people would argue that Japan's win in the World Cup still trumps that in terms of prestige. There is no denying that the USWNT will be desperate to redeem themselves after throwing away a lead to allow Japan to edge them out on penalties. They will come out blazing, ready to rock and roll, with a confident swagger that has been building since defeating China and Germany.
By contrast, the Japanese camp have been quiet, with Sasaki admitting his team needed to improve against the Stars and Stripes. Emotions will be running high, especially for the Americans in this contest, and Japan can use that to their advantage. After all, although they would certainly like to retain their world title, the pressure arguably is more on the USA to bring the trophy home. And this is exactly what could tilt things in favor of Japan.
The final verdict
Japan's record against the USA stands as one win, 23 losses, and six draws. Not a good showing, but that one win was enough to nullify all their past bad results against one of the best teams in world football. As the USWNT appear to be picking up steam, Japan seem to be slowing down.
Or are they? Remember, this is a team whose modus operandi is patience and diligence in getting the job done. No one expected them to beat the USA four years ago, yet, they did, seemingly against all odds. And, to be honest, any team who arrives at this juncture has as much a chance of winning the title as the other. It will all boil down to the mentality of the players and if their coaches can get the best out of their squads.
Simply put, Japan are the last obstacle standing between the USWNT and their quest to make history. And one can certainly bet on one thing: the Nadeshiko will not cede their crown without a fight.
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