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Africa lost one of its six hopes last week as Cameroon became the first nation to crash out from the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Will the Super Eagles of Nigeria follow the Indomitable Lions in their den or spread their wings and fly in the blue sky with Diego Maradona’s already-qualified Albicelestes?

Group B – Explanations

Argentina – 6 points, +4
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Korea Republic – 3 points, -1
Greece – 3 points, -1
Nigeria – 0 point, -2

Argentina comfortably qualified into the Last 16 of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. They are safe and can even opt to lose on Tuesday night. The battle for survival is between the Korea Republic, Greece, and Nigeria. Any of these three teams could join Argentina in the Round of 16 and here are mathematical analyses of Group B.

Case 1: Argentina Beat Greece At Everyone’s Expectations

Once Greece lose to Argentina, then their 2010 FIFA World Cup campaign will come to an end. That is because any result between Nigeria and South Korea will see one of these two teams clinching more points or a better goal difference than the Greeks. 

E.G:

Supposing Greece lose, even by a one-goal margin. They will have 3 points and a (-2) goal difference. Meanwhile, in the night’s other game, a draw will put South Korea through to the next stage with 4 points. A win for the Asians will give them 6 good points. In these two cases, Greece will crash out of the 2010 FIFA World Cup at the expense of Korea Republic.

Now a win for Nigeria, even a one-goal margin one, will put the Super Eagles on 3 points with a (-1) goal difference at least while Korea Republic will only have 3 points and a (-2) goal difference at most. In such a case, Nigeria will qualify at the expense of the Koreans while Greece will be on their way home.

Case 2: Greece Create History By Beating Argentina

In conclusion, Greece’s sole option to remain in the tournament is to beat Argentina. And even then, their passage into the next stage will only depend on the result between Nigeria and South Korea. As the goal difference issue will come into play should two or three of Group B’s teams end up with 3 points, then it will be important for the Greeks to win big or to hope that the winner (if there is any) between Korea Republic and Nigeria doesn’t have a better goal difference than them in the end.

For Nigeria, the reality is that they will be out no matter the score line should Greece beat Argentina. That is because the Greeks would have clinched 6 points out of the reach of the Nigerians who can, at most, get 3 points after Match-day Three. For Korea Republic, defeating Nigeria will be imperative if Greece defeat Argentina.

Case 3: Greece and Argentina draw

If Greece and Argentina draw, then it will also be over for Nigeria regardless of what they achieve against the Tigers of Asia. The Koreans, however, will stand a great chance of going through and a victory over the Super Eagles will definitely seal their qualification into the next round.

Better Placed South Korea Eying Nothing But  A Victory

The South Koreans, who count 3 points at the moment, are obviously better placed to join Argentina in the Last 16 than the Nigerians, who haven't even clinched a single point so far. But for Kim Jung-Woo, his team should not play for a draw. The Gwangju Phoenix midfielder, who witnessed his side’s 4-1 defeat against Argentina, explained:

“We have to win to reach the second phase. Some people are saying that a draw will be enough, but our goal is to win. We’ll have to try not to concede a goal, especially in the early stages. From start to finish, it will be important for us to be very well organized.”

Having lost only narrowly to Argentina and then disappointingly to Greece, the Super Eagles will be keen to play Tuesday night’s match as if it was a cup final. Kim is aware of Nigeria's strong desire to win, but he is still confident about the strength of South Korea.

“We have rapid strikers and wingers. We can break down the Nigerians with their speed. We will press to regain the ball and attack each time they have it.”

Defender Lee Young-Pyo echoed Kim Jung-Woo’s statement, declaring:

“We aren’t even concentrating or calculating which team has how many points or what the goal difference is… We will just go there and give our all. We have spent much of our time analyzing Nigeria’s tactics. We have the required experience to know what we are going to do.”

Part of Korea Republic’s anticipated job against Nigeria was put to light by Coach Huh Jung-Moo. The tactician is already looking forward to frustrating his opponents. Well aware of the manner in which Nigeria wasted their 1-0 lead against Greece after being reduced to ten men, the South Korean manager declared:

“As we saw in the case of Sani Kaita who was sent off, we will need to put pressure on the Nigerians. This will let them be agitated and they will lose their temper. We can’t allow them to play freely on the pitch.”

Surprised Nigerians Now Thinking Positively

Just after his side lost to Greece last week, Nigeria's Joseph Yobo revealed his pessimism over his team’s chances in the 2010 FIFA World Cup, stating that his team “was basically out of the tournament”. Mathematically, however, all is not lost for the Super Eagles. If Argentina favor them by beating Greece tonight, then destiny will be in their hands. Coach Las Lagerback expressed his surprise at being in such a bizarre condition. He said:

“I have never experienced that before; you have lost twice and yet, you still have a chance of going through. This of course has helped us a lot to keep our focus on what we are doing. So now, we are really looking forward to the game [against Korea Republic]. We can really show how good the Super Eagles are. I think we can play a really good game against the South Koreans.”

Shifting his attention over Nigeria’s opponents, the coach analyzed:

“They run a lot and they have good technical skills. They are also quick and they want to attack. That could be one weakness – the only I can find. If you win the ball in good positions, and then you go for it really quickly, then maybe you become a little bit unorganized.

“I think the style of play South Korea will use against us could be good for us. So, I am positive about it and I think it could be an interesting game in any case. Hopefully, it will be an open attacking game from both teams.”

Nigeria defeated Korea DPR 3-1 in a friendly match ahead of the 2010 World Cup. Can they repeat this feat against North Korea's rivals South Korea? Will the Tigers of Asia, instead, restore the pride of their continent following Korea DPR's miserable 7-0 loss to Portugal on Monday afternoon?

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